#Snowfall forecast models plus#

'If the warm air is closer to the ground, the melted snow doesn't have enough time to refreeze, and it can become super-cooled (below 32F, but not frozen) and freezes on contact with the ground, or objects like power lines, thus becoming freezing rain. 'If the layer is high enough up and the air lower down near the ground is below freezing, the snow melts then refreezes into sleet,' Easterling continued.

#Snowfall forecast models plus#

'The forecasters use all this information, plus their own local knowledge to put together the forecast,' Easterling said.Īnswer Man: Why can't people drive in the snow?Īs far as how we can get a 'wintry mix' when the air temperature at the surface is below freezing, Easterling said, 'Often there is a layer of air higher up in the atmosphere that is warm and melts or partially melts the snow. If you check out the 'forecast discussion' at the National Weather Service office at Greenville-Spartanburg Airport (), Easterling notes, 'you will often see the forecaster talking about how the timing or track of a storm differs between the two models. 'Usually, the differences are things like the timing or exact track of an event, like a winter storm. In some instances, the GFS performs better, and in others the ECMWF performs better.' 'Since the ECMWF model and the GFS model are formulated a little differently, they can give different predictions,' Easterling said. View GFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on. Day 2 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 8 inches, 8. 'ECMWF is funded by the European Union, but each European country has its own weather service, like our NWS.' Day 1 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 8 inches, 8 inches. 'The European model was developed and is run by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in Great Britain,' Easterling said. model, which is technically called the Global Forecast System, or GFS. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service developed the U.S. models are global models in that they provide predictions for the entire globe.' 'Numerical weather forecasting models, like the 'European' or 'U.S.' models are complex computer models that run on supercomputers and provide a set of 'predictions' for what the weather is expected to do over the next 10 days or so by solving a set of equations at thousands of locations all over the globe,' Easterling said via email.